MAIN CARD

Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje

I’m legitimately concerned about what crisis could occur if Ferguson vs Khabib is booked again. At some point we just need to accept that this fight just shouldn’t happen. Khabib’s substitute is brawler Justin Gaethje. Gaethje, while tough, is simply not anywhere near the level of technical grappling that Ferguson is at. Outside of fighting styles, a quick dive into Sherdog statistics should convince even the most casual fan of Ferguson’s prowess. The quality of opponents Ferguson has faced and beaten is somehow not the most fascinating aspect of El Cucuy himself. There are two surefire bets regarding Tony that you should feel confident betting the bank on,

1. He will beat Justin Gaethje

2. The fight with Khabib will never happen

Enjoy your winnings, compliments of Basketball Beeswax.

Pick: Tony Ferguson

Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz

The first MMA event I seriously watched was UFC 218, headlined by Max Holloway and Jose Aldo. The show served as my introduction to many fighters including Cejudo and Ngannou. While Ngannou obviously impressed me more, Cejudo’s dominance over Sergio Pettis was unlike anything I had ever seen. I stuck with him through every event since, including his deserved win against Mighty Mouse Johnson and the most satisfying KO I’ve ever seen over the cheater TJ Dillashaw. Cruz is a great fighter, but I have to back Cejudo here.

Pick: Henry Cejudo

Francis Ngannou vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The real fight here is between Ngannou and Brock Lesnar for the title of most physically terrifying athlete to ever enter the Octagon. As a high school sophomore who’s never been to a UFC event, I’m still slightly afraid to pick against “The Predator” Ngannou. God only knows how his opponents feel. Ngannou in a landslide, setting up a title match with Stipe in the fall.

Pick: Francis Ngannou

Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar

Expect a chaotic slugfest from these two veteran featherweights coming off losses. Stephens and Kattar have near identical striking statistics and fighting styles, both landing around 40% significant strikes and having a 0.71 knockdown average per 15 minutes. Kattar is the odds favorite primarily due to his age and height advantage. I’ll have to agree with Vegas, however be warned that this is a fight that could change with one punch.

Pick: Calvin Kattar

Greg Hardy vs Yorgan De Castro

I’ll preface this by saying I’m completely biased for this fight. Greg Hardy has been shoved down the throats of UFC fans for months now. However, I would be picking Yorgan De Castro in a manner that would only be described as wishful thinking. Let’s hope we don’t have another inhaler-gate on our hands to spoil such a great event.

Pick: Greg Hardy

PRELIMS

Anthony Pettis vs Donald Cerrone

Everyone’s favorite fighter takes on everyone’s favorite Wheaties athlete in a fight that should’ve headlined a Fight Night or at least been featured on the main card. The unfortunate truth is Cowboy Cerrone has lost 3 fights in a row by KO/TKO. Despite the heart he’s shown in each of the fights, I don’t see this trend stopping against Pettis who somehow managed to last 5 rounds during a Nate Diaz onslaught.

Pick: Anthony Pettis

Aleksei Oleyinik vs Fabricio Werdum

I struggled to pick this fight as a number of negative qualities plague both fighters leading into Saturday’s PPV. Werdum hasn’t fought since he was KO’d by Alexander Volkov over two years ago. This is the most obvious red flag for Werdum as his opponent has been highly active in recent years. This matchup will mark Oleynik’s sixth fight in two years. Both fighters are 42 year old grapplers who are well past their prime. The only differentiating factor I could settle on is both fighters’ record against American Top Team member Walt Harris. Both fights ended suddenly in the 1st round with Oleynik being on the receiving end of a Harris knee while Werdum quickly took Harris down and submitted him via armbar. This irrational comparison has led me to pick Werdum to submit Oleynik within 2.

Pick: Fabricio Wedum

Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson

While I think Waterson is better in every category on paper, I’ll pick against her just because I hate “The Karate Hottie” moniker so much. The blog is called Basketball Beeswax and not MMA Martini for a reason. I can only write so much about this sport until I inevitably fall back into the rabbit hole filled with skinny Shaq highlights and the 1994 NBA Finals.

Pick: Carla Esparza

Uriah Hall vs Ronaldo Souza

Ronaldo Souza went 1-3 in his last four fights against Gastelum, Weidman, Hermansson, and Blachowicz. His 3 losses came by decision to this absolute murderer’s row of Middleweights. While I don’t fault him for losing to 3 top 15 fighters, the Brazillian is 40 years old facing Uriah Hall who has won by KO/TKO in 11 of his 15 wins. As much as I love the one they call “Jacare”, I foresee a rough night for the former Strikeforce icon.

Pick: Uriah Hall

EARLY PRELIMS

Vincente Luque vs Niko Price:

Full disclosure, I’ve never seen Niko Price fight. I’m sure he’s great, but I watched Vicente Luque absolutely emasculate Jalin Turner within Round 1. He’s scarily tough. Luque by TKO.

Pick: Vincente Luque

Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa:

Bryce (Thug Nasty) Mitchell. The nickname along with a quality TUF performance is enough for me.

Pick: Bryce (Thug Nasty) Mitchell

Ryan Spann vs Sam Alvey:

First match of the night should be a dominant Spann win by my estimation. Let’s call it what it is, Alvey is here to put over Spann and potentially set him up for a run at the top 15 in the LHW division. Spann is on a 3 fight winning steak while Alvey is on a 3 fight losing streak. Spann gets his hand raised.

Pick: Ryan Spann