Predicting the NBA Awards Pt. 1 - MVP

On Friday, the NBA announced that the voting for annual awards will only consider games played prior to the shutdown on March 11. Over the next week, I’ll be going over each individual award starting today with the MVP. Additionally, Basketball Beeswax is launching a podcast network! Starting on July 30, myself along with some of the most knowledgeable sports aficionados will be breaking down the best of NBA news, highlights, and drama. Stay tuned for more announcements regarding our audio content coming in the near future.

PREDICTION: Giannis Antetokounmpo

MY PICK: Giannis Antetokounmpo

I thought I’d start this week-long series off with the most important award - MVP. Ironically, this award seems to be the most clear-cut in terms of my prediction and the correct choice. Giannis is on pace to become one of the greatest to ever grace the hardwood. It’s in play for him to join Jordan and Hakeem as the only players to win both MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in the same season. That elite company is fitting of the Greek Freak who has dominated his competition for this award at every level.

While the popular “best player on the best team” argument is overused, it’s very applicable to the Freak’s case for MVP. He’s #1 in PER and averaging 29.6 PPG on a ridiculous near 60% shooting. He’s in the rare crop of athletes who give max effort on both ends every night. That’s not something you can teach or develop. That uber-competitive gene only exists in a few people in the entire world at a given time.

Despite the terror that must induce on his opponents, it's not even the scariest part about the man who plays like Shaq, moves like Westbrook, and flies like Jordan. The most frightening thing? He’s still getting better. Giannis has improved in nearly every statistical category since his MVP campaign last year and I see no signs of that trend stopping. We still haven’t seen a version of him with a reliable jumpshot. He’s slowly gotten more comfortable with outside shooting, particularly this season, but he’s nowhere near competent enough to be a trusted shooter in a late game situation. I expect that to change in the coming seasons as the world continues to witness the ascension of the next legend into basketball’s highest echelon.

While he may deserve it, I doubt Giannis will be voted as the MVP unanimously because of one man and one man only: LeBron James. Just like every other season in the past decade, LeBron has been magnificent. Part of me wants to give him this award to make up for the absolute travesty that was the 2018 MVP race where voters chose James Harden over LeBron despite LeBron having more points, rebounds, and assists along with a significantly higher FG%. For the sake of time and my mental health, I won’t go any further down that road.

It should once again be noted that LeBron has been deserving of the MVP for multiple seasons in his career but was ultimately cheated out of it due to a more attractive narrative or simple voter fatigue. However, I don’t think that 2020 is one of those instances. I’ll concede the fact that LeBron should be #2 on everyone’s MVP ballot but Giannis has clearly been better this season and last season. I hope the recent push from Frank Vogel and the King himself won’t sway voters away from 2020’s true MVP.

Now that my 1 and 2 have been established, I’ll quickly run through 3 other names that deserve some kind of recognition for their work this season regardless of the fact that LeBron is the only individual who is in any sort of contention with Giannis. Luka is the clear 3rd option to me after averaging a near triple double in just his second season. I’d put all the money in the world on Luka winning his first MVP next year barring an injury to himself or teammates. I’ve never seen or heard of a player vaulting into the MVP conversation so quickly in his career. That narrative will play right into the hands of sport media and should carry him throughout 2021 until his eventual victory in June.

As for 4 and 5, I’d give the nod to Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard respectively. AD will never win MVP when playing with LeBron, but he deserves to be honored for his commitment to turning the Lakers around defensively. Kawhi is a completely different story. I’ve hailed him as the best player in the league since his final San Antonio season and I’m not wavering from that belief in the slightest. Anytime he has the ball in his hands, I expect a score. Anytime he guards someone, I expect a stop. Kawhi is the king of the eye test and it shows. Load management annoys me as much as everyone else but there’s something to be said about a guy who values championships over individual accolades. That guy is Kawhi and he’s unapologetic for it. Look forward to at least 5 more years of disappointing regular seasons from him followed by 2 months of him terrorizing any opponent in his way until he hoists yet another banner.

IMAGE CREDIT: Keith Allison